Look for travel deals from Southwest Airlines soon
If you have travel plans this fall or winter, especially between Thanksgiving or Christmas or right after New Year’s through mid-February, look for a big sale soon from Southwest Airlines. 
Published: 04 October 2012
If you have travel plans this fall or winter, especially between Thanksgiving or Christmas or right after New Year’s through mid-February, look for a big sale soon from Southwest Airlines.
If it follows last year’s pattern, the sale will happen on a Tuesday and others will match — but it will only last a few days.
Travel demand drops dramatically during the two weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas and the week after New Year’s, around Jan. 8, through Feb. 14, which are some of the weakest travel periods of the year. This is because most people burn through their vacation time during the holidays.
Over the past few years, Southwest has cut those fares dramatically during its October sale because it’s the only way to fill up planes. For all of you who will be flying short-haul this holiday season, you will be paying much more than last year.
Quiet fare increases
Although Southwest’s sale is expected for this off-peak travel period, Southwest has quietly been raising short-haul fares across the country.
Compared with a year ago, one-way fares from Dallas increased and fares to Midland, Oklahoma City and Tulsa rose from $55 ($39 base, plus $11 tax) to $81 ($70 base, plus $11 tax). Fares to Houston and San Antonio went from $60 ($49 base, plus $11 tax) to $99 ($88 base, plus $11 tax). When you subtract the mandatory taxes, the base fares have increased by almost 80 percent, especially on short-haul flights.
I remember the good old days when Southwest offered $20 fares on short-haul flights and as a bonus, a fifth of whiskey. During the 10-day promotion, Southwest was the biggest distributor of spirits in Texas. Now you are paying $93 one-way, or $186 round-trip and you’re not getting free booze.
Southwest gradually increased fares on short-haul flights across the United States; this probably allowed the airline to keep the increases under the radar. Southwest is the price-setter in this town, and when it increased fares in the Dallas market on Sept. 27, other airlines matched by Friday morning. When other airlines raise fares and a low-cost competitor doesn’t match, especially Southwest and AirTran, the fares usually get rolled back. When Southwest and AirTran raise fares, those fares are quickly matched and the increases usually stick, so they are the price-setters.
Fuel drives increase
The price of fuel is driving the increase. These airplanes were never designed with $90 per barrel of fuel in mind and some of the aircraft still in use are gas-guzzlers. With spot market price of jet fuel costing more than $3 per gallon, even the more economical planes have high fuel costs.
Southwest’s mission is to make a profit. Last year, combined with AirTran, the carrier made $174 million in profit, even though it raised fares, but Delta made more than $1.2 billion and United made $900 million. The primary reason the other carriers made a bigger profit was due to charging fees for baggage, cancellations, etc., that Southwest does not charge. The only hope that these fares will get scaled back is if fuel drops to $50-$60 per barrel.
Long-haul bargains
There are some bargains on long-haul flights.
When we priced airfares this past week, you could fly to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., for $183.60 round-trip nonstop on American, but it will cost $186 to fly to Houston on American, United and Southwest, which is a fifth of the distance. One reason that Fort Lauderdale is priced low is that Spirit offers two flights per day and other carriers like American are discounting their fares.
At the end of the day, there is no logic to airfare pricing. There are some competitive routes. But Southwest’s old slogan that they’ll show you how to fly cheaper than you can drive will have to go in the history books, especially on these short-haul flights within Texas and to neighboring states.
Southwest is known for its short-haul flights, so it makes sense that those are the fares that are rising. The airline has been successful for more than 30 years and it aims to continue that legacy.
In 2011, the airlines collected more than $6 billion in fees for things like checked bags and seat fees. Remember when you are comparing fares that you still get plenty of freebies from Southwest such as no change fees, no cancellation frees and two free checked bags.
There is hope
If there is a ray of hope it is that Southwest may give us a whopper of a sale.
Last year during the sale, one-way fares were as low as $35 for travel of 450 miles and less, $65 for 451 to 1,000 miles, $95 for 1,001 to 1,500 miles and $125 for more than 1,500 miles.
Until then, you may consider driving on short-haul routes. You could drive round-trip from Dallas to Houston for $84 in fuel costs in a car that gets 20 miles per gallon. It will take an hour to fly and four hours to drive, but you won’t have to get a car rental if you drive.
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